МОСКВА, 08 декабря 2021, Институт РУССТРАТ.

If you look at what is dominating the Western media in relation to Russia today, then the number one topic that has practically pushed aside all other stories is the allegedly planned «Russian invasion» of Ukraine in the winter of 2021.

The other day, for example, the German tabloid Bild, which is one of the leading mouthpieces of American propaganda, information and, accordingly, disinformation in Germany, shared detailed «details» about how this will happen.

Referring to the «plans of the Russian military» intercepted by the CIA in mid-October, the publication notes that they «lie in a box”, but Russian President Vladimir Putin «has not yet decided whether they will be implemented or not”. And then the tabloid, with the help of a «high-ranking source in intelligence”, paints a picture of how «the Russian army – if Putin gives the order — will launch a simultaneous attack from the north of Crimea» and «from the east”.

An amphibious operation «to the east of Odessa between the cities of Fontanka and Koblevo» will be carried out. At the same time, a landing party will land in the Kherson region along the Dnieper. Armoured formations will begin to «move west» from Donbass, turning to Zaporozhye. The Russian army will advance to Dnepropetrovsk and Poltava. And then the offensive will begin from the north in the direction of Kiev.

Finally, the most interesting thing is what attracted our attention. According to Bild, NATO strategists have not yet come to a conclusion whether Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko will take part in this «operation». By the way, in August of this year he himself spoke out in a peculiar way on this topic. As RIA Novosti reported, «the Belarusian leader also touched upon relations with another neighbour – Ukraine. He recalled that he had always supported Kiev.

But why are you training militants on the territory of Ukraine and sending weapons to us here? After all, weapons come mainly from Ukraine. Now, of course, we have closed this border tightly. Why are you doing this, because the nations are neighbours, they are native people,’ he said, admonishing Vladimir Zelensky.

And his patience is not unlimited: ‘One day you will jump, and I will cross the border without weapons and collect not 40, but at least 90% of Ukrainians, and we will return Ukraine.’ However, Lukashenko did not specify to whom exactly he would return Ukraine.»

The Belarusian president has repeatedly appealed to the events in the neighbouring country since 2014. He commented a lot on the political situation, repeatedly referring to the events on Maidan in the winter of 2014. It seemed that Ukraine was something personal for him. «All of us, Belarusians, Russians, Ukrainians, came, in fact, from one ‘nest’ – the Slavic one. Therefore, it is simply humanly painful to look at what is happening in Ukraine today,» Lukashenko stressed in October 2014.

«In addition, he noted that he always found a common language with Ukrainian politicians who were in power. The Belarusian leader did not have a chance to work with Leonid Kravchuk: ‘I knew all the other presidents well and worked very closely with them. And not only with Kuchma and Yanukovych, but also with Yushchenko, with Turchynov.’ Lukashenko was also familiar with Petro Poroshenko even before the latter became president,» “Moskovsky Komsomolets” noted.

Today Ukraine is in such an economic situation that no invasion is needed to push it to collapse, it will happen by itself. Therefore, journalistic information fabrication and similar statements of American and European politicians about the allegedly imminent capture by Russia, according to the most immodest calculations of NATO strategists, of about 2/3rds of the Ukrainian territory indicate that the West understands the impossibility of keeping Ukraine within its current borders. And discussions among Western analysts are already underway on the topic of which specific areas will become the basis of the new «Ukrainian states».

But it is also clear that these new formations will face huge problems, primarily of a socio-economic nature. It will be necessary to urgently provide the population with food, heat and electricity, and medical care. As for the current Ukrainian authorities, including regional ones, they have discredited themselves and are not able to solve such tasks. The new «Ukrainian states» will need a strong leader.

Perhaps from the outside. Considering that Lukashenko is a person well–known to the Ukrainian political and financial elites, who understands the weaknesses and strengths of the neighbouring country, can’t he, as they say, «switch to another job» and lead eastern and southeastern Ukraine? For him, this will be a new interesting and ambitious challenge. However, the Belarusian president has so far shown that he is ready to take responsibility.

Институт международных политических и экономических стратегий Русстрат

(@russtrat)

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