МОСКВА, 20 декабря 2021, Институт РУССТРАТ.

The columnist of the Polish newspaper Gazeta Polska Codziennie Bartosz Bartczak called on Warsaw to «squeeze Moscow out of its former spheres of influence”. Here is what he writes in his article:

«During the battle of the big powers, new opportunities often open up for small countries that can turn into strong players… The aggressive policy of a weak Russia opens up the prospect of squeezing Moscow out of its former spheres of influence, gaining the approval of many nations…

Poland is on the right path to the restoration of the First Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in the form of ties and cooperation that united the nations that were part of it… And Russia? Regardless of who wins the upper hand in the conflict between China and the United States, it will lose its position as a superpower, like France after World War II, like Austria in the 20th century, like Sweden or Poland in the 18th century. The time of Moscow has just come to an end, the time of Warsaw has begun…

We can go even further than 400 years ago, and not only restore the First Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, but also unite the entire Intermarium region. The United States and China will welcome this and strive to have us among their allies. The Americans have already helped us launch the Three Seas Initiative, and Beijing — the ‘17+1’ bloc. It’s up to us, it’s time to start the Polish offensive.»

It should be clarified that the publication in which Bartczak is published represents the interests of the radical flank of the Polish ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS). These are its most loyal supporters, so Gazeta Polska Codziennie periodically interviews PiS Chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who values loyalty very much.

At the same time, it should be understood that any party tries to keep radicals close to itself, but to pursue a centrist line nevertheless. However, does this mean that the call to sweep Russia off the map of history is just a catchy slogan?

It’s impossible to say that anymore. The fact is that, faced with the ignorance of Polish interests on the part of the EU and the US, Warsaw is beginning to think about whether Poland really needs membership in the Western alliances, where it has been striving. These reflections lead to the conclusion: Warsaw could embark on a solo voyage and begin forming its own alliances. This, for example, was recently stated in an interview with the Catholic newspaper Nasz Dziennik by the famous Polish political scientist Grzegorz Górski.

According to him, in a situation where Washington is negotiating with Moscow, Poland should take independent steps. Firstly, to join the group of countries neighbouring Ukraine (Turkey, Romania and Hungary); to create an alternative format, for example, a Warsaw one, and sit down at the negotiating table with Ukraine and Russia, and try to «become the subject of this game, and not the object of Putin’s game.»

Secondly, on this basis, to establish closer defence cooperation between the countries that are «threatened» by Russia — Poland, Turkey, Romania and Hungary with the invitation of Sweden and Norway. Both initiatives should also include the UK, with which Warsaw has good relations. «It should be said that at present we have no room for manoeuvre and, moreover, we do not have time,» Górski says. «After a while, the Russians will begin to solve the problem of free access to Kaliningrad, and we will face such problems that will make what is happening on the border with Belarus a sweet memory.»

In somewhat different terms, but on the same topic, the authoritative Polish analyst and expert on Russia Marek Budzisz reflects on the pages of the pro-government website wPoliticy. «If Western Europe and the United States want to negotiate with Russia, let’s not resist it, because we will not be able to stop this process,» he writes. «Let’s make sure that our point of view is taken into account as often as possible. Let’s ensure our strengthening, including militarily.

Finally, let’s remember that closing the prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine will shock this country. Let’s be ready for this, perhaps by proposing and developing existing local or regional formats. If France can make military alliances with Greece, Italy and Croatia, then why can’t Poland do the same with Romania, Great Britain, Ukraine and Turkey?»

As it can be judged, Warsaw is on the verge of making a decision to pursue a new policy in the eastern direction, reviving old geopolitical plots from the time of the First Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. However, until Poland is a member of the European Union and NATO, it is constrained in its actions. Because its very first aggressive steps will mean for the EU and the North Atlantic Alliance the prospect of unleashing a conflict with Moscow, up to the exchange of military strikes. The West cannot afford this.

Therefore, we will not exclude the possibility that Brussels and Washington will decide to let Warsaw go free, pushing it to leave the EU and NATO. The West loses practically nothing here, realising that the new militant Poland, of course, will not be able to squeeze Russia out of its zones of influence, but it can create certain problems for Moscow by forcing it to spend resources on solving the «Polish question».

However, events may unfold according to a different scenario that took place in history. In this case, it’s already Moscow who will start working with the Polish elites, pulling them to its side. And then Poland will face the factor of its next partition, but this time without the direct annexation of its territories, when a Polish People’s Republic, friendly to Russia and Belarus, will appear in the east of the country.

Институт международных политических и экономических стратегий Русстрат

(@russtrat)

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